tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1789 United Flight history → IAD 08:25 SAT 10:59 7% 3% 0.6% 94%
UA 1869 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 SAT 20:22 16% 7% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 13:31 → SAT 17:20DL 2199 11h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 11m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 49m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 42m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:38 → SAT 15:42UA 2030 8h 02m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 5h 49m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:44 → SAT 12:07AA 413 6h 53m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819 9h 06m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 15m 74% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON