tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3525 at 08:35, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3525 Republic IAD 08:35 SDF 10:27 5% 2% 0.5% no record
UA 3980 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 12:48 SDF 14:37 18% 6% 0.4% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 29m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842 6h 34m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 21m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 3h 21m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 7h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831 6h 36m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 6h 34m 93% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498 3h 59m Newark EWR 18:00 → SDF 20:25UA 3415 · flown by Republic 7h 50m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 1h 24m Houston IAH 16:35 → SDF 20:01UA 4050 · flown by Mesa 7h 11m 95% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON