Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1015 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1015 IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 737 IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1015 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:00	SEA 09:45	8%	3%	0.8%	79%
UA 1824 United	IAD 13:09	SEA 15:57	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 375 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 08:59	SEA 11:35	12%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 1574 Alaska	IAD 07:04	SEA 09:32	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1128 United	IAD 17:52	SEA 20:43	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 18:14	SEA 21:09	22%	6%	0.8%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 12m	89%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 34m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON