Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1095 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1095 IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:49	SFO 12:38	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	11%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:20	SFO 19:16	15%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:44	SFO 21:34	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	29%	8%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689	1h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → SFO 18:33UA 233	8h 23m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 32m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	7h 48m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON