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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 10h 40m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 50m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 22m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 9h 34m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 08:59 → SEA 11:35AS 375 2h 02m Seattle SEA 13:37 → SJC 15:43AS 657 9h 44m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 03m 85% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:57 → DFW 19:20AA 524 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 9h 37m 93% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 8h 01m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON