tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → IAD 17:55 SMF 20:40 13% 3% 0.5% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 21:19 → SMF 22:57UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 10h 42m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:08 → SLC 08:41DL 432 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 9h 08m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → SMF 21:28DL 682 9h 26m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:11UA 662 7h 58m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:17 → MSP 09:02DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 52m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 4h 00m Denver DEN 20:29 → SMF 22:07UA 1602 10h 32m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 1h 21m Denver DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:41UA 1208 7h 53m 95% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON