tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 10:13, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2319 United IAD 17:52 SNA 20:43 12% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 11h 15m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 44m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933 9h 31m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 46m Denver DEN 19:15 → SNA 20:44UA 1704 9h 09m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 2h 29m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 9h 05m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 9h 23m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 7h 20m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON