Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841	13h 19m	100%	85%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	2h 25m Denver	DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280	10h 57m	99%	82%
American Details →	IAH 11:02 → ORD 13:53AA 2504	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 16:57 → ANC 21:04AA 375	13h 02m	100%	80%
American Details →	IAH 10:20 → DFW 11:43AA 1407	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399	12h 08m	95%	79%
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	3h 33m Seattle	SEA 20:54 → ANC 23:41AS 228	12h 03m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:41AS 241	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 14:34 → ANC 17:21AS 1436	12h 21m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON