Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1069 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1069 IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4106 IAH 20:02 → ATL 23:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1069 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:40	ATL 08:50	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1315 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	ATL 10:04	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2304 Delta	IAH 08:09	ATL 11:18	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1030 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	ATL 10:39	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	IAH 09:41	ATL 12:48	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	IAH 12:09	ATL 15:21	12%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:38	ATL 17:54	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:34	ATL 21:54	15%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 1651 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:51	ATL 21:59	17%	5%	0.7%	55%
UA 2240 United	IAH 18:12	ATL 21:26	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1404 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:00	ATL 09:26	19%	7%	0.8%	68%
F9 4106 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:02	ATL 23:24	30%	10%	0.9%	56%
UA 4079 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	ATL 15:16	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON