tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Hartford on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2378 United IAH 18:42 BDL 23:34 20% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 5h 43m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 05m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37UA 2643 9h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 8h 16m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 11:57 → BDL 14:04AA 2741 7h 03m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 8h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:11DL 1307 2h 19m Detroit DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14DL 2989 6h 54m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 18m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 6h 17m 54% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON