Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YV 4045 IAH 20:11 → BHM 22:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 6110 IAH 14:36 → BHM 16:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 4045 Mesa	IAH 20:11	BHM 22:16	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 4231 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 07:31	BHM 09:35	9%	2%	0.8%	88%
YV 6115 Mesa	IAH 12:13	BHM 14:13	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
YV 4076 Mesa	IAH 16:15	BHM 18:14	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
YV 6110 Mesa	IAH 14:36	BHM 16:36	12%	4%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON