tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 92% 86%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:52 → LAS 08:21F9 1489 2h 39m Las Vegas LAS 11:00 → BUR 12:15F9 4107 7h 23m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 28m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 57m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → BUR 11:54AA 1208 7h 52m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 30m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 7h 43m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → SFO 14:28UA 2611 1h 47m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 7h 09m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:34 → DEN 18:27UA 470 46m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 6h 09m 73% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON