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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:48 → BZN 13:41UA 741 7h 21m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 31m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 40m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946 7h 00m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 10h 04m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 22m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 31m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 6h 55m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106 1h 11m Chicago ORD 10:18 → BZN 12:56AA 1080 7h 43m 95% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON