Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 5091 at 12:50, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 12:50	CHA 16:03	16%	5%	0.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chattanooga is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737	5h 42m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 35m Detroit	DTW 12:53 → CHA 14:36DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	8h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 02m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:50 → CHA 22:48DL 1059	7h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:47 → CHA 17:45DL 3124	7h 04m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33DL 1417	1h 40m New York	LGA 13:13 → CHA 15:21DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor	7h 21m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → CHA 18:46DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	98%	86%
American Details →	IAH 07:02 → DFW 08:32AA 3026	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:25 → CHA 15:42AA 2037	7h 40m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON