Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 6295 at 12:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day


UA 6295 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 12:33	CHS 16:20	11%	5%	1.3%	80%
UA 2237 United	IAH 18:38	CHS 22:14	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 20m	99%	91%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549	1h 46m Dulles	IAD 13:14 → CHS 15:09UA 1952	6h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	5h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	5h 12m	98%	90%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:53 → CHS 14:12UA 2631	8h 08m	100%	90%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 03m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003	8h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → CHS 16:29DL 2463	8h 59m	99%	89%
United Details →	IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36UA 1797	1h 34m Newark	EWR 12:10 → CHS 14:16UA 1760	7h 15m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON