Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6271 IAH 07:26 → CMH 11:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2086 IAH 20:13 → CMH 23:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6271 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 07:26	CMH 11:20	10%	2%	0.9%	85%
OO 4788 SkyWest	IAH 12:23	CMH 16:21	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2086 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	CMH 23:59	15%	3%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON