Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 512 IAH 07:47 → DCA 12:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5589 IAH 16:54 → DCA 21:18 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:47	DCA 12:04	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 07:10	DCA 11:33	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	12%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	14%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 10:37	DCA 14:59	16%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 235 United	IAH 16:59	DCA 21:16	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 16:54	DCA 21:18	17%	9%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON