Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2551 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2551 IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2158 IAH 16:59 → DFW 18:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	5%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	6%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 09:08	DFW 10:37	9%	3%	0.8%	81%
UA 358 United Flight history →	IAH 07:23	DFW 08:50	10%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 07:02	DFW 08:33	10%	5%	0.7%	70%
MQ 3477 Envoy	IAH 12:11	DFW 13:36	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1183 United Flight history →	IAH 21:37	DFW 22:59	13%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	IAH 10:20	DFW 11:43	13%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 14:46	DFW 16:16	15%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 1949 United Flight history →	IAH 19:59	DFW 21:25	16%	7%	0.6%	71%
AA 1397 American	IAH 14:10	DFW 15:35	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1599 United	IAH 16:59	DFW 18:23	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
OH 5576 PSA	IAH 16:09	DFW 17:30	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	21%	7%	0.6%	71%
OH 5299 PSA	IAH 18:55	DFW 20:16	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2158 American	IAH 16:59	DFW 18:13	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	DFW 13:34	20%	11%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON