Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5354 IAH 20:25 → ECP 22:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4969 IAH 12:20 → ECP 14:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5354 SkyWest	IAH 20:25	ECP 22:24	12%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4225 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 09:15	ECP 11:11	12%	2%	0.9%	80%
UA 4969 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 12:20	ECP 14:20	13%	3%	0.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON