Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2608 IAH 14:49 → EWR 19:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	6%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 3907 United	IAH 21:34	EWR 02:06	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	18%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:51	EWR 14:30	20%	7%	0.8%	79%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	22%	10%	0.8%	73%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	22%	11%	0.8%	74%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 20:19	EWR 00:52	24%	7%	0.9%	64%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	24%	9%	0.8%	72%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	26%	7%	0.8%	66%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	30%	11%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON