tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 5716 at 18:14, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5716 SkyWest IAH 18:14 GRR 22:05 15% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:11DL 1307 3h 56m Detroit DTW 23:07 → GRR 00:06 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor 7h 46m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 3h 34m Detroit DTW 12:52 → GRR 13:52DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 7h 22m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 48m Chicago ORD 10:47 → GRR 13:00UA 1297 6h 56m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 33m Minneapolis MSP 12:46 → GRR 15:16DL 1245 7h 46m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → IAH 11:02 → ORD 13:52AA 2504 3h 18m Chicago ORD 17:10 → GRR 19:20AA 4729 · flown by Republic 7h 18m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 59m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 5h 03m 96% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36UA 1797 3h 16m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 9h 02m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33DL 1417 3h 33m New York LGA 15:06 → GRR 17:01DL 5104 · flown by Endeavor 9h 01m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON