tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via LAX, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 253 United Flight history → IAH 10:10 HNL 13:26 22% 6% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 20m Chicago ORD 10:19 → HNL 14:03UA 219 13h 59m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:01 → LAX 07:36UA 417 1h 29m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 10h 52m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:59 → MSP 08:47DL 1050 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 44m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 53m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:09 → DTW 08:59DL 1389 1h 32m Detroit DTW 10:31 → HNL 14:00DL 385 13h 51m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 40m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:10 → SLC 09:26DL 1583 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 12h 09m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 12h 58m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON