Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4315 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 10:05	HSV 12:08	12%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 4284 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:35	HSV 20:42	16%	3%	0.0%	84%
UA 4292 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 19:50	HSV 21:53	20%	7%	1.3%	80%
UA 4879 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 13:22	HSV 15:24	23%	7%	1.8%	77%
UA 4946 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 15:05	HSV 17:08	23%	9%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON