tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1687 at 11:55, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1687 United Flight history → IAH 11:55 IND 15:25 7% 3% 0.6% 87%
UA 6132 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 16:35 IND 20:03 25% 8% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 42m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 7h 53m 100% 94%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 00m Chicago ORD 08:59 → IND 11:19UA 3550 · flown by Republic 5h 15m 98% 93%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106 2h 36m Chicago ORD 11:43 → IND 13:57AA 4713 · flown by Republic 6h 44m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 56m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 8h 03m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979 7h 01m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36UA 1797 1h 18m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 06m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 7h 19m 99% 91%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON