tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history → IAH 11:58 JFK 16:38 24% 11% 1.3% 50%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history → IAH 18:17 JFK 23:00 28% 11% 1.4% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 56m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 5h 28m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 30m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 29m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 40m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 8h 20m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 11:40 → JFK 13:36AA 374 6h 35m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → JFK 21:48DL 2378 6h 10m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:31 → MIA 09:10AA 2144 1h 25m Miami MIA 10:35 → JFK 13:34AA 2062 7h 03m 95% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON