Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 417 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 417 IAH 05:59 → LAX 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1755 IAH 22:21 → LAX 00:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 05:59	LAX 07:33	5%	2%	0.7%	97%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	9%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:56	LAX 16:36	10%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	12%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	13%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	14%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 434 United Flight history →	IAH 21:44	LAX 23:16	14%	5%	0.6%	82%
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:28	LAX 22:35	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:33	LAX 20:05	15%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:21	LAX 00:08	15%	4%	1.1%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON