Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2245 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2451 IAH 18:37 → MCO 21:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	8%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	10%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	MCO 20:48	10%	5%	0.7%	82%
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:14	MCO 19:47	12%	6%	1.1%	66%
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	13%	4%	0.7%	81%
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:29	MCO 17:06	15%	5%	1.1%	77%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:37	MCO 21:57	15%	5%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON