Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2144 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2144 IAH 05:31 → MIA 09:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1829 IAH 18:26 → MIA 21:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:31	MIA 09:10	7%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:57	MIA 11:47	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	16%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 12:02	MIA 15:47	18%	5%	1.0%	87%
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 17:02	MIA 20:51	24%	8%	1.1%	57%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MIA 21:56	26%	8%	0.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON