Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1050 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1050 IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1818 IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1050 Delta Flight history →	IAH 06:30	MSP 09:13	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1554 Delta	IAH 10:39	MSP 13:31	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1516 Delta	IAH 14:48	MSP 17:38	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2617 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:40	MSP 20:32	14%	7%	0.6%	74%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	IAH 19:44	MSP 22:31	18%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 1818 United	IAH 14:28	MSP 17:13	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON