Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 491 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 491 IAH 07:32 → MSY 08:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2140 IAH 18:32 → MSY 19:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 491 United Flight history →	IAH 07:32	MSY 08:57	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2385 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	MSY 13:14	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
OO 4786 SkyWest	IAH 21:42	MSY 23:06	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 575 United Flight history →	IAH 09:45	MSY 11:01	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2738 United	IAH 14:58	MSY 16:24	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
YV 6284 Mesa	IAH 16:52	MSY 18:21	14%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 2161 United	IAH 20:02	MSY 21:20	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2140 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	MSY 19:51	16%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON