tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1563 at 20:31, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1563 United Flight history → IAH 20:31 ONT 21:55 16% 4% 0.7% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 41m 96% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 27m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:02 → DFW 08:33AA 3026 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 8h 30m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 47m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:22 → ONT 09:43AA 1820 6h 41m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → ONT 12:01AA 2956 7h 59m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 9h 07m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 10h 40m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:41AS 241 48m Seattle SEA 11:29 → ONT 13:59AS 571 7h 59m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON