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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Norfolk on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ORF 14:15DL 2925 7h 35m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 37m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 5h 57m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:09 → ORF 15:27UA 2807 8h 17m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:11DL 1307 2h 29m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 7h 12m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 5h 09m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731 6h 52m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 12:51 → ORF 14:14AA 2911 7h 13m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346 5h 44m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON