Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 740 IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 1421 IAH 18:19 → PDX 20:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 740 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	PDX 11:56	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1964 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	PDX 19:18	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 1421 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 18:19	PDX 20:50	17%	3%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 18m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	6h 32m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 35m	96%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON