Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2203 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2203 IAH 07:32 → PHL 12:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1663 IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2203 United Flight history →	IAH 07:32	PHL 12:06	5%	2%	0.5%	97%
AA 3196 American	IAH 07:02	PHL 11:41	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2486 American	IAH 00:01	PHL 04:43	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2427 American Flight history →	IAH 12:03	PHL 16:45	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2748 United Flight history →	IAH 12:12	PHL 16:34	14%	3%	0.5%	55%
UA 1663 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	PHL 22:29	15%	3%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON