Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2614 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2614 IAH 08:00 → PHX 09:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 17:45 → PHX 18:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2614 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	PHX 09:04	8%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	IAH 14:21	PHX 15:19	14%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 1798 United Flight history →	IAH 14:23	PHX 15:22	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	IAH 19:53	PHX 20:42	15%	7%	0.7%	72%
UA 1478 United	IAH 16:54	PHX 17:54	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1259 United	IAH 18:20	PHX 19:09	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:45	PHX 18:49	23%	8%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON