tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4057 United flown by Mesa Flight history → IAH 12:15 RIC 16:19 11% 4% 0.9% 89%
UA 6208 United flown by Mesa Flight history → IAH 18:13 RIC 22:40 17% 5% 1.2% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 16m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 3h 29m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic 8h 44m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152 6h 07m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:23 → RIC 11:43AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 5h 41m 95% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886 3h 24m Newark EWR 15:23 → RIC 17:06UA 3639 · flown by Republic 8h 46m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 42m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 18:32 → RIC 20:15DL 1263 7h 06m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → RIC 14:35AA 1915 7h 33m 98% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 5h 36m 55% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON