Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2250 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2250 IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1542 IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2250 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SAT 08:27	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1371 United Flight history →	IAH 09:38	SAT 10:54	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2030 United	IAH 14:38	SAT 15:42	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2198 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SAT 22:42	17%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:42	SAT 19:50	18%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 1542 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	SAT 21:13	19%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 6201 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:39	SAT 10:46	10%	3%	1.4%	90%
UA 6202 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:08	SAT 13:17	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON