Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2228 IAH 12:09 → SEA 15:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2341 IAH 20:12 → SEA 23:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2228 United	IAH 12:09	SEA 15:00	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 08:00	SEA 10:41	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	17%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 2341 United	IAH 20:12	SEA 23:02	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 23m	93%	79%
American Details →	IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → SEA 10:50AA 767	6h 48m	93%	77%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575	59m Denver	DEN 09:51 → SEA 11:51UA 1253	6h 31m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON