Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1845 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1845 IAH 06:29 → SFO 08:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2607 IAH 18:09 → SFO 20:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1845 United	IAH 06:29	SFO 08:41	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	12%	3%	0.6%	68%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	IAH 21:59	SFO 00:05	13%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	15%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	SFO 14:28	16%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 1134 United	IAH 17:19	SFO 19:32	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	17%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	18%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 1202 United	IAH 19:34	SFO 21:43	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2607 United	IAH 18:09	SFO 20:22	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949	5h 51m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:09 → LAX 17:30DL 1143	46m Los Angeles	LAX 18:16 → SFO 19:54DL 2197	5h 45m	82%	65%
United Details →	IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674	51m Austin	AUS 20:48 → SFO 22:37UA 1204	5h 47m	83%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON