tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 05:02, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:04 → SJC 10:56AA 2046 7h 54m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 11m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:35 → SJC 13:20UA 1256 8h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 53m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 7h 50m 92% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:02 → DFW 08:33AA 3026 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 8h 52m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:09 → LAX 17:30DL 1143 3h 22m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:15DL 1420 8h 06m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216 56m Los Angeles LAX 09:26 → SJC 10:50DL 1380 5h 40m 92% 82%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439 3h 24m Seattle SEA 20:45 → SJC 22:52AS 1444 10h 14m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON