tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 701 United Flight history → IAH 15:03 SJU 20:38 14% 4% 0.6% 91%
UA 1192 United Flight history → IAH 10:03 SJU 15:42 16% 4% 0.7% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861 9h 21m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:43 → SJU 17:38UA 1339 11h 23m 99% 83%
FrontierDetails → IAH 16:14 → MCO 19:47F9 4978 3h 30m Orlando MCO 23:17 → SJU 02:15 +1F9 4726 9h 01m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 7h 49m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 55m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 6h 52m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:31 → MIA 09:10AA 2144 1h 55m Miami MIA 11:05 → SJU 13:50AA 1613 7h 19m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 12:02 → MIA 15:47AA 1347 2h 23m Miami MIA 18:10 → SJU 21:02AA 1689 8h 00m 94% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON