tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:09, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1155 United IAH 10:00 SMF 12:14 12% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1148 United Flight history → IAH 20:35 SMF 22:43 15% 5% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 13m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 6h 20m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:59 → LAX 07:33UA 417 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 09:27 → SMF 11:13UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 21:18 → SMF 22:57UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 26m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 43m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 10h 15m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:17 → SMF 10:26AA 2081 7h 24m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:48 → SMF 13:28UA 2673 8h 08m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON