Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104	5h 47m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:23DL 3115	7h 23m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:55DL 3109	6h 46m	99%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 08m	100%	85%
United Details →	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	1h 39m Newark	EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324	8h 29m	92%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 17:02 → MIA 20:51AA 678	1h 05m Miami	MIA 21:56 → SRQ 23:05AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	5h 03m	68%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON