Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1353 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1353 IAH 07:22 → TPA 10:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1312 IAH 18:10 → TPA 21:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1353 United Flight history →	IAH 07:22	TPA 10:49	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
UA 1501 United Flight history →	IAH 12:50	TPA 16:12	13%	4%	0.8%	74%
UA 1312 United Flight history →	IAH 18:10	TPA 21:29	18%	4%	0.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON