Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1976 at 20:16, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1976 IAH 20:16 → TUS 20:57 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1976 United	IAH 20:16	TUS 20:57	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4040 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:00	TUS 20:42	17%	11%	0.0%	83%
UA 6219 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:32	TUS 10:07	18%	10%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON