Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YV 4048 at 12:01, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YV 4048 Mesa	IAH 12:01	TVC 16:26	15%	4%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 06:02 → MSP 08:48DL 1050	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 52m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:10DL 1307	3h 49m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	7h 48m	100%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 03m Denver	DEN 09:50 → TVC 14:36UA 2420	8h 21m	99%	84%
American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 12:21 → TVC 14:36AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON