Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5783 IAH 09:40 → XNA 11:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4485 IAH 18:11 → XNA 19:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5783 SkyWest	IAH 09:40	XNA 11:30	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
C5 4249 CommuteAir	IAH 12:15	XNA 14:05	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 5264 SkyWest	IAH 14:41	XNA 16:35	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
G7 4507 GoJet	IAH 19:58	XNA 21:36	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4485 GoJet	IAH 18:11	XNA 19:50	16%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON