Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4959 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4959 ICT 07:32 → DEN 08:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5630 ICT 18:42 → DEN 19:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4959 Southwest	ICT 07:32	DEN 08:06	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 5355 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 06:08	DEN 06:53	6%	3%	0.5%	92%
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:35	DEN 14:20	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
OO 5813 SkyWest	ICT 11:38	DEN 12:14	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2082 United	ICT 09:40	DEN 10:37	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5240 SkyWest	ICT 17:12	DEN 17:50	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4141 Southwest	ICT 19:16	DEN 19:51	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5630 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 18:42	DEN 19:19	18%	3%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON