Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4142 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4142 ICT 11:25 → DFW 12:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2304 ICT 16:26 → DFW 17:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 11:25	DFW 12:50	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
OO 6217 SkyWest	ICT 08:26	DFW 10:14	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4032 Envoy	ICT 09:42	DFW 11:07	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ICT 06:18	DFW 07:29	10%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 19:00	DFW 20:26	11%	2%	0.9%	64%
AA 5372 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ICT 14:07	DFW 15:36	13%	5%	0.9%	87%
AA 2304 American	ICT 16:26	DFW 17:54	18%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON