Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1685 at 12:40, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1685 Southwest	ICT 12:40	LAS 13:31	6%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	8h 19m	99%	91%
United Details →	ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:45 → LAS 10:49UA 1767	6h 41m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	8h 41m	99%	90%
United Details →	ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → LAS 13:09UA 1803	7h 44m	97%	88%
United Details →	ICT 09:13 → IAH 11:11UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 09m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 24m	100%	88%
United Details →	ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875	9h 00m	98%	87%
United Details →	ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Denver	DEN 16:07 → LAS 17:15UA 2424	5h 40m	97%	86%
American Details →	ICT 06:18 → DFW 07:29AA 5104 · flown by PSA	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:32 → LAS 10:38AA 1550	6h 20m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON